Description
Since the COVID-19 virus outbreak in December 2019, the disease has spread to almost 100 countries around the globe with the World Health Organization declaring it a public health emergency. The global impacts of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are already starting to be felt and will significantly affect the 5G Base Station market in 2020.
COVID-19 can affect the global economy in three main ways: by directly affecting production and demand, by creating supply chain and market disruption, and by its financial impact on firms and financial markets.
The outbreak of COVID-19 has brought effects on many aspects, like flight cancellations; travel bans and quarantines; restaurants closed; all indoor events restricted; over forty countries state of emergency declared; massive slowing of the supply chain; stock market volatility; falling business confidence, growing panic among the population, and uncertainty about future.
The 5G base station is the core device of the 5G network, providing wireless coverage and realizing wireless signal transmission between the wired communication network and the wireless terminal. The architecture and shape of the base station directly affect how the 5G network is deployed. In the technical standards, the frequency band of 5G is much higher than that of 2G, 3G and 4G networks. At this stage, 5G networks mainly work in the 3000-5000MHz band. The higher the frequency, the greater the attenuation during signal propagation, so the base station density of the 5G network will be higher.
Global Electronic Special Gases Key Players:
Huawei–TIANGANG
Ericsson—Street–Macro
Nokia–AirScale
Qualcomm–Qualcomm®Snapdragon™X55 5G Modem-RF
Samsung–5G Massive-MIMO Unit（MMU）
ZTE–AAU
Intel–Atom® Processor C3000 Series
Huawei’s 5G technology and business are already in an absolute leading position in the world.
In 2018, Huawei’s global wireless market share was around 30%. If the denominator removes the US market, the company’s global market share will be around 40%.
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Following are the segments covered by the report are:
Macro
Small
Pico
Femto
By Application:
Smart Home
Autonomous Driving
Smart Cities
Industrial IoT
Smart Farming
Other
Recently, the United States has strategically adopted measures to contain China in high-tech fields such as 5G, and promoted “de-C” in the United States and traditional allies, that is, avoiding the use of equipment and products of Chinese high-tech companies such as Huawei, ZTE, and Haikang. . In the short term, the policy guidance of some governments to operators will affect the market structure of traditional US allies to a certain extent. In the long run, technology and commerce will still be the core driving force for the development of the communications industry. We are still optimistic about the global performance of Chinese equipment vendors in the 5G era.
On the base station side, it is estimated that by 2025, the total number of global 5G base stations will reach 6.5 million, and Huawei’s market share will be 28%. The total number of 5G base stations in China is 3 million, and Huawei’s market share is 40%. The total number of small base stations in the world is 12 million, and Huawei’s market share is 25%. The total number of China’s small base stations is 6 million, and Huawei’s market share is 30%.
WGR predicts that the scale of China’s 5G base station construction in 2019 will eventually be around 150,000 stations, accounting for about 25% of the total global 5G base station construction. It is expected that starting in 2020, China will become the main battlefield for global 5G construction, and the scale of construction will account for about 60% of the total global 5G scale. According to our research on the global 5G industry chain, South Korea, the United States, and the Middle East have relatively advanced 5G deployments in overseas markets. The European market is expected to have a limited overall size in the next three years, and the Japanese market is expected to accelerate from 20 years.
The Chinese market drives the scale of global RAN equipment to rise steadily. The global RAN equipment market will keep its total scale steadily upward in the next five years. QYR predicts that the RAN market size in 2019 will be about US $ 33 billion. Driven by the Chinese market, we expect to exceed US $ 46 billion in 2022, and then gradually fall 40 billion US dollars, of which 5G equipment accounted for less than 30% in 2019 to more than 80% thereafter. The scale of LTE equipment is expected to decline steadily, from 20 billion in 2019 to 6.1 billion in 2025; investment in 2 / 3G equipment gradually fades. It is not difficult to see that the main driving force behind the changes in the scale of the RAN equipment market is 5G.
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This report also analyses the impact of Coronavirus COVID-19 on the 5G Base Station industry.
Based on our recent survey, we have several different scenarios about the 5G Base Station YoY growth rate for 2020. The probable scenario is expected to grow by a -8.4% in 2020 and the revenue will be xx in 2020 from US$ 97881 million in 2019. The market size of 5G Base Station will reach US$ 997986 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 49.2% from 2020 to 2026.
Downstream
The speed of 5G layout is accelerated, and the demand for base station energy storage batteries exceeds 161GWh, of which 14.4GWh is required in 2020. Recently, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have successively held meetings. The meeting clearly stated that it will accelerate the progress of 5G construction and promote the resumption of 5G production. The three major operators have also expressed their intention to increase the construction of 5G base stations. It shows that the country is determined to promote 5G construction. Under the top-level coordinated deployment, it is expected that the construction of 5G base stations will exceed expectations this year, achieving the construction of 680,000 5G base stations and the construction of 7.6 million base stations by 2025. Because 5G uses a larger array antenna and higher bandwidth, the full load power of a single station is close to 3800W, which is 3.5 times the power consumption of a 4G base station. Considering the energy consumption of other equipment in the computer room, we believe that the energy consumption of 5G base stations will reach 5300W. Calculated with 4 hours of standby time, the backup power capacity of a single base station requires 21.2KWh, while the typical value of a single 4G base station backup power is 11.2GWh. Based on this, we estimate that the base station standby power demand capacity will be 14.4GWh, 21.2GWh and 27.56GWh in 2020-2022, respectively, and the cumulative standby power demand capacity will reach 161GWh by 2025
Standby power supply for communication base station: lead-acid ended, and lithium iron appeared. As the cost of lithium batteries continues to decline, the market price of lithium iron phosphate batteries for energy storage has dropped to 0.68 yuan / Wh in China. Even without considering the role of peak and valley filling, the full life cycle cost of lithium iron batteries on 5G base stations has been Far more than lead-acid batteries. Due to the substantial increase in power consumption of 5G base stations, electricity bills will bring tremendous pressure to the three major operators. In view of the frequent alternating peaks and valleys of electricity used by industry and commerce, the use of backup power to cut peaks and fill valleys to reduce electricity costs will become a standard feature of 5G base stations.
The cycle life of the lithium iron phosphate battery is 4 times that of the lead-acid battery. It has good rate performance, supports fast charging, and a wide temperature range. It is more suitable for 5G base station backup power supply. We set different scenarios to calculate the lead-acid battery, lithium iron phosphate battery, and ladder utilization. The economics of the battery show that the new iron-lithium battery performs a complete peak-flat-valley switch twice a day, which can save 707200 USD / year in electricity cost, which is 17367 USD / year more than the lead-acid battery. Calculated based on 7.6 million 5G base stations in 2025, it can save 19.4 billion yuan in electricity costs each year.
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