China’s Steel Headed for Recession? Industry Practices and Trends

Yesterday, Mr Wang, the founder of Lishengda, accepted an interview with the editorial board, and analysed topics related to the trend of China’s steel market and the development of the industry.

hot rolled steel wire rodThe severity of the steel market situation this year is different from 2015

‘Since the beginning of this year, China’s steel market has shown a situation of low demand, low price, low efficiency and weak balance. Among them, ‘low price’ does not only mean low steel prices, raw fuel prices are also lower than the same period last year.’ Mr Wang said, ‘Every year, after the Spring Festival, steel prices rise for a period of time, either long or short. This year, steel enterprises and steel traders ‘hurt’ so badly because steel prices fell all the way down after New Year’s Day.’ ‘In previous years, steel prices basically fluctuated and fell, while this year is a sustained decline, resulting in serious losses for steel companies.’ Mr Wang expects that steel prices are expected to rise back up during the year. ‘In 2015, the competition between steel companies was not on the same starting line, product standards, costs and other elements were different, and the whole market was very mixed.

Today, many steel companies will not be like before, ‘rather let the profit, not let the market’, but will take the initiative to control production, no profit on the production, or have a loss on the production cuts. In short, the competitive situation of the steel industry is completely different from 2015. Can not be because of this year’s situation is grim, it is thought that this year’s steel price trend will be like 2015.’ Mr Wang said.Steel industry maturity will continue.

‘As early as the end of the 1970s, Europe, the United States, Japan and other countries and regions of the steel industry has entered the so-called peak platform period, but until today, the steel industry in these countries are still in the industrial structure adjustment.’ Mr Wang referred to this stage as the ‘maturity’ of the steel industry’s life cycle.

‘Currently, China’s steel industry is in the maturity period.’ According to Mr Wang, the fact that the iron and steel industry has entered a peak platform period does not mean that it will immediately enter a period of decline. ‘It is too early to talk about recession.’ Mr Wang emphasised that ‘maturity is a long process. In this process, the steel industry has to go through a lot of stormy tests.’ In his opinion, the maturity period of China’s steel industry will continue for some time. In this process, some enterprises can become bigger and stronger, and some may be eliminated.

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