With its robust job market, affordable housing options, and vibrant culture, Chicago continues to shine as a top choice for those seeking a place to call home. However, like many major cities, Chicago’s real estate market has experienced notable fluctuations in 2023-2024.
Unlike some other urban real estate markets, Chicago has witnessed a unique blend of lower home price appreciation and a swift housing inventory recovery. These trends have raised concerns among homebuilders and potential buyers alike, largely due to the impact of rising mortgage interest rates and increased construction costs.
For those contemplating a real estate investment in the Windy City, the question looms: Is Chicago still a sound choice? Here, we provide you with comprehensive insights to help you make an informed decision.
Chicago’s Housing Market Trends
As previously mentioned, the initial months of this year saw a slowdown in Chicago’s real estate market, with home prices declining in April as real estate sales dipped.
Nevertheless, when compared to the previous year, these figures aren’t drastically different, as the Chicago real estate market experienced a downturn in 2022 as well. Let’s delve into the key housing trends.
Median Sale Price in Chicago
According to data from Redfin, the median sale price for homes in Chicago dropped by 6.2% year over year to $350,000 in April 2023, placing it below the national average.
Despite this notable drop, the median sale price recorded in April 2023 stands as the highest since July 2022. Last August, the median sale price for Chicago homes was $325,000, falling below $300,000 in September before showing a slight recovery in January 2023.
March 2023 reported the highest median sale price of the year at $335,000, signifying an almost 5% increase in the past 30 days.
Housing Demand
In April 2023, approximately 34.4% of housing units in Chicago were sold above the listing price, reflecting a 6.1% year-over-year decrease. Concurrently, the number of homes with price reductions increased by 0.8%, reaching 12.9% for all home types.
Homes Sold
Redfin’s data also reveals a 35.9% year-over-year decrease in the number of homes sold in Chicago. As of April 2023, only 2,315 housing units had been placed under contract. In contrast, the previous year saw 3,610 homes listed and purchased, although the decline commenced in July 2022.
March 2023 marked the beginning of a sales recovery, with 2,454 homes sold, but this figure dipped by over 100 units just one month later.
Sale-to-List Ratio
The latest statistics from Redfin show that the sale-to-list ratio for all home types in April 2023 stood at 98.8%, indicating that most housing units in Chicago are selling at or slightly below their asking prices.
Housing Inventory
As per Realtor.com, Chicago’s housing inventory has experienced growth in 2023. In April, there were 11,344 homes available for sale across the city’s 78 neighborhoods. The housing supply across the Chicago metro area has shown a significant recovery, reaching 4.29 months of supply by January 2023.
Median Days on the Market
Redfin also reports an extended duration for selling homes in Chicago, with the median days on the market rising by 6% year over year to 59 days in April 2023. In comparison, homes spent 53 days on the market in April of the previous year. However, when compared to the first quarter of this year, young homeowners are selling their properties approximately 30 days faster.
Foreclosures
It’s worth noting that Chicago is the most populous city in Illinois, a state with the highest foreclosure rate in the United States. In March 2023, Illinois claimed the top spot on SoFi’s list of states with the highest foreclosure rates, with 2,437 out of 5,412,995 homes entering foreclosure. This translates to one foreclosure per 2,221 housing units, marking the highest rate observed in the first quarter of the year.
SoFi’s reports also highlighted Stark, DeWitt, Livingston, St. Clair, and Will counties as having the highest number of foreclosures.
Factors Influencing the Chicago Real Estate Market
Curious about the factors that contribute to a city’s housing market fluctuations? Several variables play a significant role in determining home demand, prices, and inventory. Here are the primary ones:
The City’s Economy:
The local economy is a paramount factor in the Chicago housing market. A strong job market and financial stability among residents typically drive heightened demand and prices. Conversely, economic struggles or job instability can lead to a reduction in demand and lower property values. Chicago’s key industries include food innovation, manufacturing, printing, transportation, insurance, publishing, services, and financial trading. Although the city’s unemployment rate remained relatively low throughout 2022, hovering at 4.4% in December and dropping to 4.1% by March 2023, it slightly exceeds the national average of 3.4%.
Government Policies:
Local government policies, particularly those pertaining to tax deductions, credits, and subsidies, exert significant influence over Chicago’s real estate market. These policies can directly impact housing demand, inventory levels, and prices. Property taxes in Chicago can vary by location, leading to diverse real estate markets within the city.
Demographics:
The composition of Chicago’s population, including factors such as age, income, gender, and migration patterns, exerts a substantial influence on the real estate market. Changes in demographics can affect housing demand, as different groups may seek specific types of housing units. Migration patterns also play a vital role in shaping real estate trends. Chicago has historically attracted migrants from around the world. Recent data from Redfin indicates that approximately 4% of U.S. homebuyers expressed interest in relocating to Chicago from major cities like Denver, Minneapolis, and Detroit. Furthermore, 84% of property owners intended to remain within the Chicago metropolitan area, while 16% planned to move away from the city between February and April of the current year.
Mortgage Interest Rates:
Fluctuations in mortgage interest rates have far-reaching consequences for Chicago’s housing market, as they do for cities across the nation. The past two years have seen numerous changes and trends driven by shifts in these rates. Higher mortgage interest rates typically reduce housing affordability, resulting in decreased demand and lower prices.
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